CNN’s election team is predicting a huge ‘red wave’ in the 2022 midterms unlike any other.
“Things are looking pretty good if you’re a Republican fighting for re-election or trying to unseat a Democrat, right?” Jake Tapper inquired of CNN’s senior data correspondent, Harry Enten.
“From a historical standpoint,” Enten remarked, “they’re looking pretty excellent.” “Basically, I took the greatest Republican positions on the generic congressional ballot in midterm elections since 1938. “That generic ballot, in essence, is the same as voting for the generic Republican or Democratic candidate in your area.” What’s more, guess what? Since 1938, Republicans have held a two-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, which is the strongest position for Republicans at this point in any midterm campaign in more than 80 years.
“It outperforms 2010, when Republicans were up a point,” he continued. “It outperforms Democrats’ points leads of 14, 2000, and 1998.”
“And in all of those four prior examples that make this list of the top five, look at that, who won a majority? It was the Republicans who won a majority,” he added. “Now, of course, the election is not being held tomorrow and we’ll see sometimes history isn’t always prologue. But my estimate for the 2023 House makeup if the election were held today, which again, it isn’t, we still have five months, five months from tomorrow —would be Republicans 236 seats to 241 seats, Democrats 194 to 199. That’s based off of a formula of seat-to-seat race ratings from both the Cook Political Report and inside elections.”
The really bad news for CNN viewers is that the +2 Republican ballot is extremely generous — though it is useful to compare apples to apples, even with biased polling. Rasmussen has Republicans at +8, Emerson at +3, and Quinnipiac at +4. The Politico/Morning Consult poll reduces the Real Clear Politics average to +2 with a comically unrealistic +4 Democrats advantage.