7 states most likely to flip in the Biden-Trump race
The looming November rematch between President Biden and former President Trump could be decided by just a handful of states.
Six months out from Election Day, all eyes are on seven toss-up states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — where 93 electoral votes will be up for grabs this fall.
Biden won all but North Carolina back in 2020, but recent polling suggests Trump has an edge over the incumbent in several of those battlegrounds this cycle.
The race for the White House could come down to these swing states:
Arizona
Biden won Arizona last cycle by roughly a third of a percentage point, making it the first Democratic presidential win in the Republican stronghold since the ’90s.
But Trump is now up roughly 6 points over Biden in Arizona, according to Decision Desk HQ/The Hill averages, where issues surrounding the border are set to play a key role in November.
Meanwhile, Democrats are looking to the Grand Canyon State, where 11 electoral college votes are up for grabs, as one of several places where issues around reproductive rights could fuel turnout to boost the party.
The state just repealed a Civil War-era, near-total abortion ban, and organizers are working to get a measure on the ballot that would enshrine protections for the procedure.
Republicans make up the biggest group of registered Arizona voters, but voters unaffiliated with either major party outnumber Democrats in the state, according to voter registration statistics from last month.
Rep. Ruben Gallego, the Democratic Senate candidate in the state, is leading his Republican rival Kari Lake in the closely watched race to replace Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema and running ahead of Biden, according to New York Times polling. Gallego scored 45 percent to Lake’s 41 percent, while Biden brought in 42 percent to Trump’s 49 percent.
Georgia
Biden flipped Georgia blue for the first time in decades back in 2020, beating Trump by fewer than 12,000 votes.
But as the pair ready for a rematch in the Peach State, the 2024 race lacks marquee down-ballot races and signs of big turnout that helped boost Biden four years ago.
There are 16 electoral votes on Georgia’s table in November, and polling averages from DDHQ/The Hill put Trump up around 6 points, around 49 percent to Biden’s 43 percent.
The Times polling shows Trump with even more of an advantage, putting the Republican ahead by 10 points.
Last cycle, Georgians surged to the polls to elect Democrat Jon Ossoff as the state’s first Jewish senator and the Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) as the state’s first Black senator.
This year, the Republican primary saw double the turnout of the Democratic contest, and Biden will need to energize the state’s significant Black population amid signs that he’s struggling with the bloc nationwide.
Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan (R), who’s one of a few prominent Republicans backing Biden in November, has called for fellow Republicans not to “fall in line” with Trump. But it’s unclear if Biden will be able to repeat his success in the Peach State this November.
Michigan
In Michigan, a battleground Biden won by nearly 3 points back in 2020, the incumbent saw a significant protest vote push in the Democratic primary from progressives and Arab Americans, which inspired similar ballot-box boycotts in other states, like Wisconsin.
Arab Americans helped carry Biden to victory last cycle, and questions persist on whether the critical bloc will come back into his column after expressing anger in the primaries.
First lady Jill Biden paid a trip to the Great Lakes State this week, with Michigan Democratic Party Chair Lavora Barnes saying the visit is “proving the road to the White House runs through Michigan.”
Trump is up by 4 points in the state, according to DDHQ/The Hill averages. Fifteen electoral college votes are in play.
With its significant Arab American population and big student numbers, strategists say the presidential race in the Great Lakes State has the chance to be a notable bellwether for the 2024 race more broadly.
Nevada
Along with Arizona, Nevada could be another major Sun Belt swing state this November. Both states have notable Latino populations, as both candidates make a play for voters of color this fall.
Biden won by 2.4 percentage points in 2020. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton beat Trump in Nevada in 2016, also by a tight margin.
DDHQ/The Hill’s averages now show Trump with a lead of nearly 7 points. The New York Times polling put Biden behind by 12 points in a head-to-head, his worst showing among the battlegrounds in that survey.
Like in Arizona, a third-party contender in the Silver State could further erode support for the major-party candidates. It’s also another battleground where Democratic Senate candidates are doing better than the president: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) holds a 2-point advantage over Republican Sam Brown.
There are 6 electoral college votes on the table.
North Carolina
Though Biden swept most of the swing states in 2020, Trump won North Carolina by roughly 1.5 points after taking the state by a slightly bigger margin in 2016.
Biden’s campaign is now looking to flip North Carolina back into Democrats’ column, but it has acknowledged that “relentless effort” is needed to do so over the next six months.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) said last month that he thinks Biden has a shot at winning the Tar Heel State. Former President Obama was the last Democrat to win it back in 2008. And Republicans are grappling with a potential political liability in gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who has faced scrutiny for past controversial comments.
The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates North Carolina as Republican-leaning, while the other swing states are toss-ups.
There are 16 electoral college votes up for grabs. DDHQ/The Hill averages show Trump with a 4.6 point lead.
Pennsylvania
Last month’s primaries in Pennsylvania highlighted weak points for both Biden and Trump as they hurtle toward their November showdown.
Nikki Haley, who had dropped out of the race nearly two months earlier, received more than 150,000 Keystone State votes, coming close to 20 percent in several counties.
Though her numbers didn’t keep Trump from clinching the winner-take-all primary delegates, they served as a red flag for the former president in the key battleground.
On the other side of the aisle, Biden faced his own protest vote push, with “Abandon Biden” rallying voters to boycott the incumbent at the ballot box over concerns about the administration’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
But, as with Nevada, there is a relatively popular Democratic senator running for reelection — in this case Bob Casey, who has consistently run ahead of Biden in polls, as well as his GOP rival, David McCormick.
DDHQ/The Hill averages put Biden behind by 1.7 points in the state he won by 1.2 points in 2020. Recent polling from The New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer shows Trump with a little more of an edge, up three points.
There are 19 electoral college votes up for grabs in Pennsylvania.
Wisconsin
Biden won Wisconsin by less than a percentage point during the 2020 cycle, and Trump now leads by less than 1 point, according to DDHQ/The Hill’s averages.
A Quinnipiac University poll released this month showed Biden’s lead over Trump in a Wisconsin head-to-head shrink from 6 points to just 1 point when third-party candidates were added into the mix, suggesting Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other contenders could serve as major spoilers.
Biden traveled to the Badger State earlier this month to tout a $3.3 billion investment by Microsoft to build a new artificial intelligence data center in the state — and to draw a contrast with a planned Trump-era investment that never materialized.
The Republican National Convention will be held this summer in Milwaukee, where Trump has hinted he could announce his running mate for 2024.
“It really is an important state for us. Wisconsin has to be won by us,” Trump told Scripps News in an interview this week. “We want to win it. If we win Wisconsin, I think we win the whole thing.”
In an exclusive interview with Scripps News, former President #DonaldTrump spoke with political correspondent @CharlesBenson4 about his two upcoming debates with President Biden, the US economy, RFK Jr., and more.#ScrippsNews pic.twitter.com/p8ubJthsjo
— Scripps News (@scrippsnews) May 16, 2024
Ten electoral college votes are in play in Wisconsin.
