Top-Rated Firm Drops Huge Poll Revealing Clear Frontrunner Nationwide
AtlasIntel — the most accurate pollster from the 2020 campaign cycle — found President Donald Trump leading in all battleground states in its last-minute poll released Thursday.
Earlier this week, AtlasIntel released what was thought to be their final result for both national and swing state polling. While the pollster found President Trump leading in just about every battleground state, the results in North Carolina raised eyebrows, as Vice President Harris squeaked out a narrow victory despite encouraging early voting trends for Republicans.
“Our own poll also suggests Republicans will win the Election Day vote by quite a large margin. The only possible explanation is higher rates of Republicans and Independents voting for Kamala in NC than one would expect. Or perhaps Democratic turnout is indeed lagging and the poll result will be off because of that,” AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman said of the North Carolina result in an X post.
“We will be releasing a new set of results this Saturday, so we’ll have the opportunity to look at this issue with more data. But I confess I am quite puzzled by this,” he added in a follow-up post.
On Thursday, the Brazil-based pollster released the results from their latest poll, which was conducted between October 30 and October 31. The margin of error was two percentage points for Pennsylvania, four points for Wisconsin and three percent for the five remaining swing states.
This time around, AtlasIntel found Trump leading by 3.7 percentage points in North Carolina, receiving 50.7 percent of the vote to Harris’ 47 percent. Arizona provided the best all-around result for the Republican nominee, whose lead over Harris stands at 4.2 percentage points. Trump also leads in Nevada by 3.6 points and Georgia by 2.3.
The results were much closer in the Rust Belt states, as Trump narrowly leads Harris with 49.3 percent of the vote to 48.7 percent in Michigan. Pennsylvania provided a better result — a trend measured by multiple pollsters — with Trump leading by 1.5 percentage points.
Wisconsin was the only battleground state breaking for Harris in AtlasIntel’s latest survey, though Harris is only ahead by two-tenths of a percentage point.
“With these results, Trump would win the Electoral College, with 287 votes against Harris’ 226. The Vice-President would have to overcome the Republican’s lead in Pennsylvania in order to have a chance of victory,” AtlasIntel wrote in an X post.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTION
With these results, Trump would win the Electoral College, with 287 votes against Harris’ 226. The Vice-President would have to overcome the Republican’s lead in Pennsylvania in order to have a chance of victory. pic.twitter.com/MphEu7k1k5
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) October 31, 2024
tlasIntel was the only major pollster in the RealClearPolitics polling average to release a poll on Thursday, pushing Trump’s small lead in the national average to 0.5 percentage points.
