BAD NEWS For Biden! Trump leads Biden in six key states
President Donald Trump is running the table against Joe Biden in six battleground states, fresh polling shows.
The surveys from Emerson College and The Hill show the 45th president edging out Biden in Arizona (47%-43%), Georgia (45%-41%), Michigan (46%-45%), Nevada (46%-43%), Pennsylvania (47%-45%), and Wisconsin (47%-44%).
In all six states, Trump’s lead has either remained the same or grown from the outlet’s polls taken last month, before he was convicted by a Manhattan jury on 34 business fraud charges.
“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball explained.
“Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”
The poll also showed Trump and Biden dead even at 45% each in Minnesota, which has backed a Republican for president just three times since the onset of the Great Depression.
However, the Trump campaign has insisted that the Land of 10,000 Lakes is in play this time around.
Emerson now has Trump TIED with Biden in Minnesota.
Pair this with the Selzter poll showing Trump +18 in IA and today’s Siena Poll showing Trump closing the gap in NY to 8 points after losing by 23 in ‘20 it’s easy to see why there’s a desperate need for national push polls. pic.twitter.com/7xLzkL7M16
— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) June 20, 2024
“Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April,” Kimball said. “In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”
The RealClearPolitics polling average also shows Trump leading Biden in all six battlegrounds surveyed by Emerson, with the former president on top by margins ranging from 0.2 percentage points in Michigan to 5.7 percentage points in Nevada.
Similar to other polls, the Emerson/The Hill survey shows Democrats in most contested Senate races running ahead of Biden.
In Arizona, Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego is besting Republican Kari Lake, 45% to 41%.
In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is topping Republican David McCormick, 47% to 41%.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is running ahead of former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers, 43% to 39%.
In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is well up on Republican nominee Sam Brown, 50% to 38%.
And in Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is narrowly ahead of Republican Eric Hovde, 46% to 44%.
A clear majority of voters in six of the states surveyed — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — said they disapproved of Biden’s performance in office, with the incumbent scoring approval ratings ranging between 35% in Georgia and 39% in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The most important issue in all seven of the states surveyed was the economy, with 27% of Arizona registered voters deeming it their top concern, along with 45% of registered voters in Georgia, 41% of registered voters in Michigan, 34% of the electorate in Minnesota, 42% of registered voters in Wisconsin, 35% of registered voters in Nevada, and 44% of registered voters in Pennsylvania.
The second most important issue varied by state. Michigan (13%), Minnesota (15%), Pennsylvania (12%) and Wisconsin (12%) voters said “threats to democracy” ranked high on their list of concerns.
In Arizona, immigration narrowly trailed the economy as the top issue, with 26% of registered voters saying it was their main concern.
A majority of voters (55%) in the Grand Canyon State also said they would vote to approve a ballot measure that would allow state and local police to arrest illegal immigrants while giving state judges the power to order deportations.
Majorities in Arizona (56%) and Nevada (58%) also said they would approve ballot measures enshrining the right to an abortion in their respective state constitutions.
Georgia voters put healthcare a distant second in their list of issues, with 10% saying it was their primary interest.
In Nevada, housing was the second-biggest concern for voters, with 14% telling pollsters it was their top issue.
The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey sampled 1,000 registered voters in each state June 13-18, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Biden and Trump are slated to square off in their first debate of the general election season next Thursday in Atlanta.
