Top Election Forecast Reveals STAGGERING Shift After DNC, RFK News
The 2024 presidential race has taken a new turn after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced the suspension of his independent presidential campaign and endorsement of President Donald Trump on Friday.
Kennedy’s decision, which came after months of campaigning as an independent, was a strategic retreat aimed at consolidating the anti-establishment vote. RFK Jr.’s campaign, though an extreme long-shot, had gained a loyal following among those disillusioned with both major parties. Now, with his exit from the race, his supporters are being urged to rally behind Trump.
The impact of Kennedy’s withdrawal and endorsement is already being felt. A new forecast from election guru Nate Silver with Polymarket has shown a significant shift in the odds, with Trump now leading Vice President Kamala Harris, who has taken the Democrat mantle after Joe Biden’s decision not to seek re-election. Just two weeks ago, Harris was ahead with a 56.7% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 42.7%. However, following Kennedy’s announcement, Trump has surged ahead, now holding a 52.4% chance of victory, while Harris has slipped to 47.3%.
#Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (chance of winning)
August 14
🟦 Harris: 56.7%
🟥 Trump: 42.7%
.
August 29
🟥 Trump: 52.4%
🟦 Harris: 47.3%
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Swing States: chance of winningPennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Nevada – 🔴 Trump 52-48%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump 60-40%
Georgia – 🔴 Trump… https://t.co/sYNPuTSk3q pic.twitter.com/RX8BHgcu0U— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 29, 2024
The battleground states, which are always pivotal in any election, have seen some of the most startling changes. Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona are all in Trump’s favor, with the former president now holding narrow leads in each. In Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has widened his margins, making those states increasingly likely to turn red in November. Only Wisconsin and Michigan remain in Harris’s column, though her lead in Wisconsin is now precariously thin.
For the Harris campaign, these developments are nothing short of alarming. The vice president had hoped to capitalize on the momentum from a well-received Democratic National Convention, but Kennedy’s exit has thrown a wrench into their plans. Harris’s campaign is now scrambling to adjust their strategy, seeking to shore up support in the Midwest and trying to recapture some of the enthusiasm that marked the early days of her campaign.
On the other hand, the Trump camp is buoyant. The former president’s team sees Kennedy’s endorsement as a validation of Trump’s claim as the true outsider candidate—a mantle Kennedy himself wore with pride until last week. With less than three months to go until Election Day, the race is anything but settled. The coming weeks will reveal whether the alliance can hold and whether it will be enough to push Trump back into the White House.
Tonight at 9 p.m. ET, Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) will be hitting the airwaves for a sit-down with CNN, marking their first joint media appearance. This interview is Harris’s first dive with the press since Biden stepped back from his reelection campaign. Former President Trump is making strategic stops in Michigan and Wisconsin, crucial states that could tip the scales in the upcoming election. His vice-presidential pick, Senator JD Vance (R-OH) , is also on the move, engaging with firefighters in Boston—a vital group recently wooed by Walz just the day before.
