Bombshell Report From Bellwether County DOOMS Kamala, Democrats
Early data from Duval County, a key bellwether in U.S. elections, is sending waves through the political landscape—and it’s not looking good for Kamala Harris and the Democrats. Duval, which famously predicted the presidential winners in both 2016 and 2020, has swung hard to the right in early mail-in voting data, signaling a seismic shift that could spell disaster for the Democrats in 2024.
The numbers speak for themselves. Republican mail-in ballot requests in Duval have surged by 7% compared to 2020, while Democratic requests have plummeted by 4.6%. The GOP now enjoys a staggering 11.5-point swing, with a 36.7% share of mail-in requests, compared to 46.1% for Democrats. Even independent and third-party voters, typically a wild card, have dropped by 2.3%.
Duval County’s rightward swing is not an isolated incident. Florida, long considered a battleground state, has been inching toward the GOP in recent years. Governor Ron DeSantis’s overwhelming reelection win in 2022 was a harbinger of this trend. Yet, what’s happening in Duval is even more striking: the county’s mail-in voting numbers are now redder than they were in 2022, a year when Republicans cleaned up in Florida.
🚨 BREAKING: KEY U.S. BELLWETHER COUNTY BOLTS TO THE RIGHT, early mail-in data finds.
🔴 NET GOP SHIFT: R+11.5
Duval County correctly voted for the presidential winner nationwide in 16 AND 20, and notably in 2022 showed Florida’s rightward shift.
Here’s the shocking data -…
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 12, 2024
With Joe Biden’s approval ratings consistently underwater, Harris has been touted as the Democrats’ best shot at maintaining control of the White House. But the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, as evidenced by the Duval data, has raised serious concerns about the Democrats’ ability to mobilize their base.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: Yes, Duval mail-ins are currently redder than 2022 as well. And the trend in Duval is basically matching statewide.
Duval below. pic.twitter.com/jf3TD2hsNt
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 12, 2024
Polling in recent months has shown Trump pulling ahead of Harris in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with voters increasingly skeptical of Harris’s leadership abilities and the direction of the country under Democrat rule. If Duval County’s shift is any indication, the polling data is about to get worse for Democrats.
In the 2020 presidential election, Duval County, Florida, saw a significant shift in voting patterns. Joe Biden won the county by a narrow margin, marking the first time a Democrat presidential candidate carried Duval County since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Biden received 51.1% of the vote, while Donald Trump garnered 47.2%. In the 2016 election, however, Duval County went for Donald Trump. He won the county with 48.5% of the vote, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 47.3%. The Republican Party had historically performed well in Duval, with Trump continuing that trend in 2016, though the margin was slimmer than previous Republican victories in the area.
In the last two presidential elections, Florida has consistently voted for the Republican candidate. In 2020, Trump won the state with 51.2% of the vote, defeating Biden, who received 47.9%. Florida’s 29 electoral votes contributed to Trump’s strong showing in the state. Similarly, in 2016, Trump carried Florida with 49% of the vote, beating Hillary Clinton and securing a key victory on his path to winning the presidency. Florida’s status as a battleground state has made it a critical focus for both parties in recent elections.
After participating in somber September 11 memorials, Trump and Harris are gearing up for a strenuous stretch of campaign activities starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend. Harris is setting her sights on North Carolina, planning events in both Charlotte and Greensboro. Meanwhile, both Harris and Trump are heading to critical battleground states in the Sun Belt today, as they hasten to sway voters following their heated initial debate with the election looming just shy of two months away.
